Posted by
CJ Good on Tuesday, March 06, 2007 2:31:43 PM
There is no longer speculation that the 2008 presidential primary season will be the soonest in the History of the United States. All the large states are clamoring for a February 5th primary date. What does that do to the traditional primary states? Are they going to just stand by and let there influence and power just be evaporated by the big 10?
Of Course not.
New Hampshire is now prepared for a January 8th primary, since by State Law they are required to be the first primary, which explains why Nevada is calling their primary a caucus. Apparently, New Hampshire is not buying it and are prepared for a primary following Wild Card weekend of the NFL playoff season. I am positive you will see other states who were involved in the early primary season to do the same, namely South Carolina.
If New Hampshire pulls this off it could completely change how the election is currently viewed. First and foremost the national polls will become null and void. Currently the press is focused on these national polls since the season will be so compressed. Now the focus will be put back onto New Hampshire and how the state will vote, with a month to go for the big prize on the first Tuesday of February.
This will also make the election more localized, rather than the national campaign that is currently being launched. It will give more influence to guys like Dodd and Romney. They are the hometown guys here and this gives them the opportunity to gain some clout in votes. This means much more for Romney than Dodd, if Romney can pull off an early upset in New Hampshire he has a full month to fight to the big day in February.
There are two issues is talking about with an early election cycle. The phoneme called the NFL and winter weather. In elections past the cycle has taken place after the Super Bowl. Do not forget that when the Redskins crushed the Bills in 92, the game was followed by the infamous Bill Clinton interview with 60 minutes. With the Super Bowl a week later and all the primaries the Tuesday prior to the SOB, who is going to be paying attention? That is right not many, the political game will be pushed out of the way of the Super Bowl. That will do something else. The candidates who play to the base of their parties vs the center of the electorate will have higher numbers than usual.
The weather is always a complaint of Democrats in November. Traditionally, the worse the weather the better the chance of a Republican winning. However, by the primaries being moved forward the Northern, Eastern, and Central states will also play to the base of the parties. Those people who do not have a party affiliation, or would be willing to switch parties in an open primary are not just going to drive through a snow storm to vote for somebody. This winter has come later than normal but the weather we are now seeing is generally seen in the months of December, January, and February. Campaigning is going to be more focused on the Blogs and new media, rather than coffee shop to coffee shop. That is going to hurt the center of the electorate as the center is not as focused on blogs or new media, and once again it will be the base who wins.
The move to an earlier primary season to help force a more centered candidates, is going to backfire. We are going to see the most liberal candidate in the history of the Democratic party emerge. In fact the Dems may get so deep in their base that a replay of 2000 could occur. Yes, after making all the liberal promises and then backing away a liberal third party may come into play.